Upcoming news
Last week we had surprises on the inflation, CPI y/y came lower than expected, which is very good for the markets.
End of this month we will have the most important event, the FOMC statement and press conference, along with the funds rate adjustment. I don’t expect any rate cuts for now, most likely Jerome will mention that they need to look into more data, meaning the unemployment rate for the next months, which was increasing with each release.
I do expect that they are preparing to cut the rates starting September, and the markets should reflect that.
DXY – Weekly timeframe
After the inflation news, the dollar plummeted – and I expect it to go lower this month.
Crypto
Fear and greed index
Crypto is finally in the extreme fear, for 2 days in a row, which is extremely bullish. These moments where the market is in pain are good investment opportunities. I expect to have the bottom set in July, or beginning of August.
USDT.D – Weekly timeframe
USDT.D has reached the first potential target of correction C-wave, it can either drop from here or go higher for next targets, but it shouldn’t go over 6.5%.
BTC.D – Weekly timeframe
Something is cooking here, let’s see if the move will be sustained next week.
TOTAL – Weekly
Nothing changed here, we lost the support and now we are retesting it, would be good if we manage to go higher. In terms of corrective waves, we reached the second target, next one would be if price drops to 1.75T.
BTCUSD – Weekly timeframe
BTC also reached 2nd target of correction, next one would be around 50k.
59k will act as resistance, bullish if we close above it.
BTCUSD – Daily timeframe
On daily timeframe, the price is pushing inside the imbalance created when the price dropped, currently it’s at a resistance on a lower timeframe, and close to the trendline resistance. The price need to push 59k and 60.3k to get back in range, and then we can see a new ATH most likely.
BTC ETF (IBIT IShares) – Daily timeframe
The price regained the 32 level, if it loses again, we will go to the next support at 29-30$.
Stock market
SPX – Weekly timeframe
SPX is currently in a range of resistances and most likely will see a rejection from here.
NDX – Weekly timeframe
The price perfectly rejected 1.618 on fib retracement, a correction from here to the trendline will be good for a continuation.
XAUUSD – Weekly timeframe
Gold is going strong, the support hold and we are going to new highs. If it breaks the current high, it will potentially be retested as a support on his way back, and offer some buying opportunities.
EURUSD – Weekly timeframe
Currently EURUSD is at a resistance, in contrast to dollar being at the support. I would expect a retracement back to the FVG left behind, maybe a retest on the trendline, before attempting to take over the current resistance. It currently broke the downtrend trendline and it has one more left.
Conclusion
The inflation news caused some shifts in the market, SPX and NDX could potentially enter a downtrend, and people go for safer assets like gold. At the same time, based on the good news with inflation, potential rate cuts, and the fact that only a handful of big companies (TSLA, NVDA etc) pushed the stock market, we could also see the money shifting into smaller companies, and in crypto, money going from BTC to ETH and high cap coins.