Continuation of previous forex analysis – https://greedy.ro/2024/07/24/forex-potential-trading-setups-2/
DXY
For DXY, this was the previous expected move –
And this is exactly what happened for now. We’ve currently seen a big move on the downside, which I expect to continue in the near future as well.
XAUUSD – 4h potential entry
On weekly, we had a bearish liquidity grab over old high and a retracement that went for some more liquidity from the FVG previously created, last week it closed over the support and currently we are pushing to end with an engulfing candle.
On daily, we had a 5-wave impulse followed by an ABC correction, currently we reached the first target for the C-wave on the 0.618 fib extension. We also have this parallel channel and a confluence with the support created by previous highs.
On 4h we see some buying pressure, and the bearish trendline being pushed through. I expect the price to either reject from this point, creating equal highs, and to take this liquidity afterwards – this will provide a good entry scenario on the support level. We could also see the price pushing over the old high, but in that case I’ll be more cautious on a long entry as I will expect some liquidity sweep from the old lows before a major move up. No divergences in place yet.
Overall, I’m bullish, and I’ll search for an entry on retesting the support.
SPX
Last post I’ve mentioned that I’m already in a long position on daily. This is after some bullish move after the price reached the second target for the corrective C-wave.
On daily, we’ve seen some bearish move below the support, the price rejected and came back over the support – followed by another big bearish candle, which has now been almost engulfed by a big, bullish move up.
On 4h, we are currently in the FVG created on the move low, and based on the buying pressure, I expect the price to go higher for now.
If we look on weekly, we are still counter-trend, as this can simply be some liquidity grab from the previous candle, so we can see a rejection from anywhere, although based on fundamental data (seasonality, inflation) I’m bullish on SPX.
EURUSD
EURUSD is neutral for now, bullish on smaller timeframes.
On weekly, we are bearish to neutral, we’ve seen some major moves on the downside but this week we’ve retraced most of the move. If we manage to close above the support, we may see a reversal going on, which would be in sync with the dxy move.
On the daily we can see a 5wave correction (1-5, or wxyxz) that rejected exactly from the second C-wave target. Yesterday we closed with a doji candle and now we’re engulfing it, but we’re currently at the resistance level.
On 4h we are still bearish, at the confluence between the resistance level and the trendline, so I would like to first see a breakthrough and I will take a long on the retest of the zone.
BTC
Weekly – Bearish
This week we had a lot of selling pressure, due to inflation and anticipation of rate cuts in next fomc meeting we are currently expecting to see some buyers coming in.
Daily – Neutral
We rejected from a common target for C-wave for bitcoin, the 1.23 extension
4h – Neutral
Currently we’re at a support, confluence with fib retracement and extension targets, and the VAL of FRVP. SL before monthly pivots. 67k will act as resistance confluence with pivot on weekly, 4h moving averages, POC of FRVP and trend as we had some consolidation at that point that failed, pushing over that level will most likely means we will see a new ATH soon, therefore this will be a trail-stop trade.
No divergences in place on any timeframe.
