Monthly market update #3 – August 2024

Upcoming news

Last month we had unemployment rate climbing to 4.1% and this month it spiked up to 4.3%, which made some waves in the markets.

This week we will have also a couple of news that will create some volatility. PPI came very good so the markets could potentially go higher in the nearby future.

DXY – Weekly timeframe

I don’t have a clear direction on DXY right now. The price already went higher and got rejected, so now we could either have the suport hold or go lower. We did have a big wick lower and the price retraced back above support, so I would incline that we will go higher in the upcoming future.

Crypto

Fear and greed index

Crypto was in a bad state in the last couple of weeks, and the altcoins were the ones most affected.

USDT.D – Weekly timeframe

Nothing much changes on USDT.D until now, the price rejected from 6.5%.

BTC.D – Weekly timeframe

Nothing much to see here either, BTC.D is still going higher each week.

TOTAL – Weekly

Last post I mentioned that TOTAL could drop to 1.75T, which it did, and now we see a big big recovery for the crypto market. We will probably see some consolidation around this level before deciding the next move, but for now it’s bullish due to that recovery.

BTCUSD – Weekly timeframe

We reached the next level of correction for BTC, as mentioned in the last post.

BTCUSD – Daily timeframe

On daily, we are still in a corrective move, and the last few days we had this move towards the FVG created, which could push us higher. Because on weekly we have a big wick left unresolved, we may still see a move to ~53k to resolve it, as long as we are below 64k.

BTC ETF (IBIT IShares) – Daily timeframe

The price went to close the gap from last week, and right now we are in a neutral place.


Stock market

SPX – Weekly timeframe

Last post I mentioned about a rejection on SPX, which has occured, and right now we are still in a neutral zone, the price going to close the FVG created with the last move. We also have that liquidity grab wick but the price may go towards it to close a bit out of it before proceeding higher.

NDX – Weekly timeframe

Nasdaq also got the correction we anticipated, but I was expecting the price to hold the trendline/support confluence. We had a big move below it but right now we are above it so currently we’re bullish as long as we keep the trendline.

XAUUSD – Weekly timeframe

Gold is still going strong and I expect to keep pushing higher over the next weeks.

EURUSD – Weekly timeframe

Nothing changed in the prediction from last month, the price retraced from resistance as expected, and due to that big wick recovery, we are now pushing the resistance without having the need to consolidate around it. We are still at a potential resistance from the trendline, and if we manage to keep above it, I will enter a long position on retest of the old resistance.

Conclusion

Last month we had a healthy correction on the markets. Gold seems to be the winner currently, but the indices are probably waiting for a reaction from DXY for now.

By admin