Continuation of previous forex analysis – https://greedy.ro/2024/08/08/forex-potential-trading-setups-4/
DXY
For DXY, this was the previous expected move –
And the price went that way exactly as predicted.
If we go on the weekly for a bit, we see that we are currently at an area that got multiple touches in the past, and based on the selling pressure, and on the fact that we are gettin close to the first rate cuts, I think we will see a retracement on the dollar before losing this support.
Therefore, on the daily level, I expect this week to see a recovery and the price going to retest the broken trendline or possibly the bearish trendline created so far (102-103).
XAUUSD
Last post I mentioned that I’m already in a long position, and in the retrospection post I’ve mentioned that I’ve closed it by trailing stop a bit too early, which happens sometimes, especially when the volatility is caused by market news.
Because we broke through the resistance, I’ve took another long entry on retest, which is still in progress.
SPX
This was the expected move since last post – I was bullish on the SPX.
And the price indeed went in this direction, even exceeding my expectations.
For the upcoming days, everything depends on the earnings report, so I’m neutral at this point – if it pushes through the resistance, as always, I’ll open a long position on retest, if given the chance.
Otherwise, I’ll probably enter a long in the next support zones.
Following the trend, I’m bullish, therefore I’m currently looking only for long opportunities.
BTCUSD
Last post I mentioned that I will not take a short on retest, as I was bullish on bitcoin.
The price did went over 63k and now we’re seeing a rejection, but I’m still bullish on bitcoin.
As mentioned in the retrospection post on 19 august – ” I’ll actually probably open a long position on smaller timeframes.”
Which is exactly what I did, right after finishing the post.
That position was closed today after the price failed to hold the support at 63k.
The current state is as follows – I’m still bullish on bitcoin, on the macro trend, and I’m waiting to see how things will unfold.
We are at a trendline level but we might see it being broken and going to retest lower levels, as we left a very big wick behind on the weekly timeframe. If the price pushes over 63k again, I’ll be a buyer again.
Overall, the weekly structure is not that bad, although it’s clearly defined as bearish, we saw a big buying pressure and now we are going for the liquidity, so if we get back over 63k I expect to target the next levels very fast.
NDX
I haven’t looked as nasdaq in a while, but considering we have earnings tomorrow, we might see a big move here as well. We might see a continuation of the move tomorrow, also assuming that the dollar will strengthen, and a retest of that trendline we had in place prior. If we have good news tomorrow, we will probably target the old ATH.
Conclusion
The last few weeks were absolutely amazing, it seems that all my analysis were correct and all my trades went in the right direction, I think I have more than 10 trades on TP in a row until now.
This is absolutely not an indication of future performance and I know that anything can happen in the markets, therefore I don’t believe that we will continue down that path, but it’s still good to take a pause and appreciate how the things went well for you up to this point.