Continuation of previous forex analysis –
DXY
For DXY, this was the previously expected move –
And this is the current outcome –
I gotta admit, I was a bit too bearish on the dollar, 100 is a strong zone and I’m not sure we’ll be able to break it before some rate cuts.
Next week we will have CPI and PPI, and I expect to see good data on them, therefore I don’t expect the dollar to take a hit soon. The funds rate meeting is on 18/09 so I expect the dollar to be bullish until then.
My prediction is that we will go higher than the current high and we’ll see from there, maybe a rejection from 102.5-103.
XAUUSD
On the dollar I was bullish last time but I’ve switched to neutral due to a bearish divergence on the weekly and the price consolidating for too long. I’m still neutral on it, although I’m in a short on it.
This was my prediction for the current year, we’ll see how it goes.
A retrace to 2440-2400 would simply move the 1-2 as such –
For the next week(s), this is what I expect to see on the gold – a breakout over the current highs, which would give me a setup to enter on retest, or the price to fall to the next areas of interest, where I will also take a long position.
SPX
This was the expected move since last post – I was bullish on the SPX, and I said that I will take a long position on breakout-retest or at 5480 at the next support zone.
Last week was extremely bearish, and based on the price movement, I did not took a long position at that support zone. When we get close to a zone I’m interested in, I’m watching it on lower timeframe, and the selling pressure couldn’t convince me to enter a long position.
I also didn’t got a chance to enter a short position as we had no retest.
For the next week(s), my prediction is that we will retrace for a bit and then continue with the selloff to the next area of interest. To be honest, if that happens, I don’t know if the next support zone will hold as well, as I think we’d be targeting the liquidity below 5100.
I’ll be looking for a short position, but I’ll be extra cautious on SPX, will wait for the price to reject from imbalance and go below 5400 and a close below the previous day low and then I’ll probably enter at market, as I’m not sure if we’ll be able to see a retrace if selloff happens.
I’m not looking for buys, unless I see the price consolidating around the support and breaking it with some big volume candle, correlated to some high impact news that is good for the stock market.
BTCUSD
This was the expected move on BTC –
And this was the current move. Apologize for the missing arrows, apparently I’ve deleted them, but we can see that we had a big dump on it, and the price retraced until 56k, we’ve seen a shy move, and then followed by another sell.
In hindsight, I did mentioned in the monthly market update the following:
“Because on weekly we have a big wick left unresolved, we may still see a move to ~53k to resolve it, as long as we are below 64k.”
We are currently in a neutral zone.
We have the following scenarios – The bullish one, where the correction ended here or will do another drop to 52k and then it ends;
Or the bearish scenario, where we will see a much higher dump incoming –
Right now, the safe play is to be neutral.
If we reclaim 56k, we will probably continue going further, and if we see another dump next week, I’ll look for shorts on retrace, assuming we will see a slow price move and not a V-shape recovery upon closing the wick from the left side.
NDX
The expected move on NDX on my last post was the following:
The move? …yeah. We’ve seen a big selloff the tech companies recently.
What’s the plan going forward?
Well, let’s look at the daily trend. In case we bounce, I’ll look for short opportunities, and if we drop below the buyside zone and recover, I’ll happily take a long position.
Conclusion
We are getting close to the rate cuts news, and the markets are currently volatile due to its big impact. We also have another volatile event coming soon, the presidential debate between Kamala vs Trump.